Will A Lagging RSP/Weak Breadth Kill The Stock Rally?

November 6, 2015 by

bearbull1Chris Ciovacco:   The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index, meaning larger companies carry a larger percentage weighting. An equal-weighted S&P 500 Index (RSP) looks at all 500 components equally.

Therefore, when RSP lags the S&P 500 (SPY), it tells us that the S&P 500 is being lead by the larger companies in the index and some of the smaller companies are lagging (see 2015 chart below).

Therefore, the RSP/SPY ratio is another way to track market breadth or participation in a stock market advance.

It is easy to see RSP has been and continues to lag in 2015.

What Does History Tell Us?

Is it possible for the S&P 500 to advance for a significant period time when RSP is lagging SPY? Said another way, is a downtrend in the RSP/SPY ratio a showstopper for the S&P 500 rally? In 2006, the RSP/SPY ratio was falling; during the same period the S&P 500 gained almost 5%.

In 2007, the RSP/SPY ratio was falling; during the same period the S&P 500 gained almost 13%. The divergence lasted for roughly four months.

In 2011-2012, the RSP/SPY ratio was falling; during the same period the S&P 500 gained over 28%. The divergence was in place for eight months.

Is market leadership by the largest companies a rally killer?

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