Was the BOE’s Pivot a Warning of Things to Come?

Alasdair Macleod, Michael Oliver and Dr. Quinton Hennigh return as guests on this week’s program. 

On September 28, the Bank of England (BoE) announced it would begin buying the 30-year gilt at a 20-year high yield at above 5% as pensions funds and other institutions were approaching insolvency due to losses on gilt investments. The fear of a liquidity crisis among pension funds caused by rising interest rates prompted the BoE to pivot even though it was expected to raise rates by as much as 1%. Alasdair emailed your host on October 4 stating, “The BoE’s action probably was a turning point. Equally it could be claimed that the public discovery that Credit Suisse has issues could have persuaded the Fed that higher interest rates bring forth systemic risks. We may have a clearer idea on 11th when I’m on your show again!”  

Stock and bond markets rallied hard off of that news but there are no signs of a change of heart at the Fed. In fact, as Adam Taggart opined on this show on Oct. 4th, it is exactly this kind of Pavlovian pivot psychology that Adam Taggart told listeners that Chairman Powell is determined to dismantle from investor thinking. Since the BoE’s action, the Fed and other banks have stood resolutely hawkish, sending U.S. Treasuries rates higher again while equity prices have cooled.  

Meantime, the rallies in the price of gold and especially of silver have Michael issuing one of his most bullish declarations in recent memory. Alasdair gives his latest views on the significance of the BoE pivot and Michael explains his sudden bullish views on precious metals. Quinton comments on some spectacular gold assays reported by Lion One Metals.  

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Alasdair Macleod has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. He is a Senior Fellow at the GoldMoney Foundation and Head of Research at Goldmoney.  His experience encompasses equity and bond markets, fund management, corporate finance and investment strategy. His weekly articles written for GoldMoney are posted on his blog at goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights Because of his deep insights into underlying market dynamics, Alasdair is one of the most frequent guests on Turning Hard Times into Good Times. 

Quinton Hennigh is a member of the Crescat Capital management team and a director. He serves Crescat as the firm’s geologic and technical advisor. He is a globally renowned exploration geologist with 30+ years of precious metals mining experience. Dr. Hennigh began his career in gold exploration after obtaining his PhD in Geology/Geochemistry from the Colorado School of Mines. Early in his career he worked for major gold mining companies including Homestake Mining (now Barrick Gold Corp.), Newcrest Mining, and Newmont Corp. Later, Dr. Hennigh founded Novo Resources Corp (TSXV: NVO), acting as its CEO and currently serving as Non-Executive Co-Chairman. He has played a key role in major global discoveries such as Novo’s Pilbara assets in Western Australia, First Mining Gold’s Springpole gold deposit in Ontario, Kirkland Lake Gold’s Fostervillegold mine in Australia, the Rattlesnake Hills gold deposit in Wyoming, and Lion One’s Tuvatu gold project in Fiji, among many others.

Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, NYC. He studied under David Johnson, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980’s Oliver began to develop his own momentum-based method of technical analysis. In 1987 Oliver, along with his futures client accounts (Oliver had trading POA) technically anticipated and captured the Crash. Oliver began to realize that his emergent momentum-structural-based tools should be further developed into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992 he was asked by the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year Oliver shifted from brokerage to full-time technical research. MSA has provided its proprietary technical research services to financial and asset management clients continually since 1992. Oliver is the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism. 

About Jay Taylor

Jay Taylor is editor of J Taylor's Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks newsletter. His interest in the role gold has played in U.S. monetary history led him to research gold and into analyzing and investing in junior gold shares. Currently he also hosts his own one-hour weekly radio show Turning Hard Times Into Good Times,” which features high profile guests who discuss leading economic issues of our day. The show also discusses investment opportunities primarily in the precious metals mining sector. He has been a guest on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg and BNN and many mining conferences.