Trump’s Travel Ban Has Global Markets On Edge

Market technician Dave Chojnacki of Street One Financial updates the key technical levels for the U.S. averages and provides an outlook for this week, as stocks try to digest the ramifications of a controversial executive order-mandated travel ban.

Stocks Took A Breather On Friday

Equities opened higher on Friday, but that strength disappeared quickly. GDP and Durables were weaker than expected, and left the major indices to languish with little enthusiasm from investors. The DJIA and SPX slid slowly to the downside during the session. The NDX managed to get a last minute bump which kept it positive. The NDX eked out new highs once again at 5168 (close) and 5172 (intra-day).

At the close, the DJIA fell 7.1 points, the SPX inched down 1.9 points, and the NDX adding 11.1 points. Breadth was negative, 1.3 to 1, on below average volume. ROC(10’s) advanced in the session. The ARMS Index ended at 1.03, a neutral reading.

For the week, the DJIA added 1.3%, the SPX was up 2%, and the NDX gained 1%. The major averages were attempting to break out of their range and make new highs last week. The VIX finished Friday at 10.58, a 2½ year low. For the week, the VIX lost 8.3%.

Short Term And Long Term, Stocks Look Bullish

Long term, the upside bias continues as the major indices made new highs last week. The DJIA and SPX are breaking out of a range they traded in since early December. The NDX and SPX are comfortably above their 20WK moving averages of 4881 and 2200, respectively.

Short term, the bias continues to the upside as the averages remain well above their 50% retracement levels. We appear to be going into a 5th Elliot Wave as we break out of the recent range. Near term, we continue to make new highs, as the bias is to the upside. MACD’s have turned above signal. The last two sessions have seen a little consolidation as the indices prepare for more upside. Critical near term support for the SPX is 2233 and 4995 for the NDX.

Trump Bearish For Stocks, For Once?

Europe is lower and US Futures are pointing lower this morning, with Trump’s muslim travel ban roiling the global averages. Protests over the weekend worldwide, along with a federal judge overruling parts of Trump’s executive order, have added to the confusion.

We’ll see many more earnings this week, including from key players like Apple, Facebook, and Amazon, and a slew of economic reports, including FOMC and Employment. Today, important economic reports on tap include Personal Income/Spending at 8:30am, PCE Core Prices at 8:30am, and Pending Home Sales at 10:00am.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) fell $0.67 (-0.29%) in premarket trading Monday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 2.43%.

SPY currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #1 of 109 ETFs in the Large Cap Blend ETFs category.


Disclaimer: The content of this article is excerpted from a daily newsletter from Street One Financial. While ETF Daily News may edit the contents and add a relevant title to the piece, the author, David Chojnacki, does not endorse or recommend any issuer or security mentioned herein.

About the Author: Dave Chojnacki

Dave Chojnacki is the Chief Market Technician at Street One Financial. He provides technical support for the Street One team and also develops individual analysis for Clients as requested.

Dave is a major contributor to the ‘ETF Daily’, a morning newsletter providing clients a daily look at market technicals of the major indices and selected ETF’s. Market trends, support and resistance levels are provided in the daily letter. The Technical portion of the daily can also be found on Seeking Alpha. Mr. Chojnacki has been quoted in a number of industry publications including the Reuters, ETF Trends, Minyanville, Yahoo Financial and Investors.Com.

In addition, Dave assists with desk trading when necessary. He possesses a Series 7 and 63.

Prior to joining Street One, Dave designed and developed I/T Systems for the Insurance and Financial Industries.

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