Trump Trade In Peril As S&P 500 Futures Plunge Below 50-Day Moving Average

From Tyler Durden: Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump’s administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge.

This in turn is pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend’s OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months. Safe havens including the yen and bonds climbed as did gold, which continued its advance above the key resistance level of $1,250, while industrial commodities dropped.

So-called “Trumpflation trades” – bets that Trump’s pro-business policies would stoke growth and inflation in the U.S. and global economies, boosting assets such as commodities – came under heavy selling pressure. The dollar, whose index had surged more than 6 percent in the aftermath of Trump’s election to hit 14-year highs at the start of 2017, slipped to its lowest since Nov. 11, two days after the results of the presidential vote.

“Investors are viewing this setback as a broader loss of faith in the Trump administration’s ability to deliver on other campaign pledges – namely tax and spending policies, which have underpinned asset prices since the U.S. elections,” said ING currency strategist Viraj Patel, in London.

U.S. equity index futures suggested stocks would retreat for the seventh time in eight days, with S&P futures sliding below the 50 DMA for the first time since the election.

The fall in risk appetite dominated European stock markets, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index falling 0.8 percent on the day led by the Basic Resources index which was the biggest sectoral loser, down 2 percent to a two-week low as copper prices slipped, while the banking index was down 1.3 percent. The Euro rose to the highest level of 2017…

… on the heels of a strong German IFO Business Climate reading, which rose to 112.3, beating expectations and above the last 111 print, indicative of a 3% GDP German print.

However, a potential red flag emerged in the latest monetary aggregate data out of the Eurozone, where M3 growth dipped from 4.9% to 4.7%, below the 4.9% expected, despite the ECB continuing its monetary blast at record levels, not to mention last week’s massive TLTRO.

Bucking the weaker trend among European stocks were precious metal miners such as Randgold and Fresnillo, both up more than 1 percent, as risk aversion boosted gold. Gold prices climbed more than 1 percent to a one-month high of $1,259 an ounce.

Attention today will remain fixed on Trump’s inability to push through the Republican healthcare bill through the House, which as noted last night, has derailed investor hopes that his pro-business agenda will pass smoothly through Congress. Reflation trades sparked by his election are faltering, with the dollar retreating and the S&P 500 Index headed for its worst month since October.

“Trump’s failure to get the health care bill through a Republican majority led Congress has raised some concerns about the President’s ability to implement his agenda of cutting taxes and raising infrastructure spending,” Ole Hansen, chief commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, told Bloomberg.

Failure would deflate further the months-long rally in stocks while reducing the need for further Fed action. The result of this has seen the dollar, stocks and bond yields lower which are all good news for investors looking for gold as an alternative.”

The market reaction has been uniformly negative, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.3 percent, with more than three shares falling for every one advancing. Japan’s Topix led declines, dropping 1.3% to the lowest since Feb. 9 and almost wiping out gains for 2017. Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong fell 1.1% and India’s Sensex index slid 0.4 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.9 percent, or 20 points, to 2,324 as of 10:12 a.m. in London. The underlying gauge last week tumbled 1.4%, its worst week of 2017. The Stocks Europe 600 Index fell 0.6 percent as it was dragged down by miners and banks. In terms of relative valuations, U.S. stocks are trading well above their historical averages while Asia stocks are still broadly in line with theirs despite a recent bounce.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) fell $1.63 (-0.70%) in premarket trading Monday. Year-to-date, the largest ETF tied to the S&P 500 index has gained 4.62%.

SPY currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #1 of 107 ETFs in the Large Cap Blend ETFs category.


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