The Trade Donald Trump Hates – But One Top Investor Loves

This post The Trade Donald Trump Hates – But One Top Investor Loves appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Wipe the crust out of your eyes—it’s gonna be another long day.

World markets are reeling. Investors are slamming U.S. stocks before the morning bell. And oil is punching down to more 12-year lows.

So what are you doing about it?

I recently said you should keep a list of stocks you’d like to buy if they fell back to a price you liked. Have you done it? If you have, you’re in good company. And today we’re prying a name from the list of one of the biggest fish in the biz…

I’m talking about Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn. Dave’s a billionaire—and he didn’t acquire his cash stash by accident. His fund has returned nearly 17% annually to investors since its 1996 inception.

There have been some bumps along the way. 2015 was one of them. Greenlight lost more than 20% last year. Mainly because they were short Netflix and Amazon—the top two stocks in the S&P 500. And as Einhorn concedes in a letter to partners, Greenlight’s worst performing investments were its biggest positions. Eek!

But I wouldn’t bet against Einhorn in the long run. Even though this market has whipped him good, he’s still finding ways to put his money to work.

Just check out his latest big trade: Macy’s (NYSE:M). That struggling retailer burning piles of cash and closing stores left and right… That former peddler of Donald J. Trump branded shirts and ties that now finds itself slammed on national TV… That Macy’s.

Macy’s was torpedoed last year. After topping out above $70 in July shares sank well below $40. No surprise there. Even if you didn’t know jack about Macy’s, you know the market’s crushed retail stocks over the past six months.

Blame it all on Amazon. As I said earlier this month, Amazon has knocked Walmart off its throne as King Retailer. Amazon’s market-cap jumped above Walmart’s for the first time ever last July when its shares rocketed higher on upbeat earnings. Amazon hasn’t looked back since. “E-tail” wins, while traditional retailers like Walmart and Macy’s get nailed…

But 2016 has been a weird year. One of the big surprises so far has been a sharp rebound in the brick and mortar retailers everyone supposedly hates. Walmart has quietly started sneaking higher after a dreadful 2015. And now Macy’s might be showing signs of life. It’s a bottom fisher’s dream—assuming you’ve found the right fishing hole.

Activist hedge fund Starboard Value is already onboard the Macy’s bandwagon. And Einhorn revealed his own stake in the troubled retailer yesterday.

While these two groups are in this turnaround play for the long haul, the charts show reason for optimism in the near-term, too. Take a gander:

Fire Sale

After six months of hell, Macy’s shares looks like they’re mustering up their best attempt at a bottom. The stock received a nice pop with the announcement that Einhorn acquired a position. And we even see shares poking their heads above the 50-day moving average—a feat that last happened when the stock was near its highs last July…

While I don’t think it’s prudent to go “all-in” on a stock like this, buying a small taste with a stop just south of $35 isn’t a bad deal in this market. If you’re a trader who’s been practicing sound risk management, you should have a few bucks on hand to dump into some longer-term speculative plays.

Macy’s could be one of ‘em. Just don’t tell The Donald…


Greg Guenthner
for The Daily Reckoning

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The post The Trade Donald Trump Hates – But One Top Investor Loves appeared first on Daily Reckoning.