The Dow Looks Bullish, Both Short Term And Long Term, For 2017

Market Technician Dave Chojnacki of Street One Financial examines the state of the U.S. equities markets as we kick off 2017.

Weak Action Caps 2016

The last trading day of the year saw equities open lower as PMI numbers were lower than expected. This trend continued throughout the session as the major averages moved lower through the day. The NDX was the biggest loser, as investors were selling Tech issues. AAPL gave up nearly 0.8% in the session.

We saw volume pick back up, as portfolio managers surprised some people and were active, making last minute adjustments to their portfolios. At the close, the DJIA fell 57.1 points, the SPX lost 0.47%, and the NDX gave up 1.1%. Breadth was slightly negative, on above average volume.

The ARMS Index ended fairly bearish at 1.69. For the week, the DJIA lost 0.8%, the SPX was down 1.1 %, and the NDX fell 1.5%. For the year, the SPX gained 9.5% and the DJIA was up 13.4%.

The VIX is now up for 6 straight sessions. It ended up 5% on Friday to 14.04 and up 22.7% for the week. We get a slew of economic reports in this holiday shortened week. Most importantly, on Friday, we get the last look at Employment Numbers for 2016.

Trading Trends

Long term, the upside bias continues. We saw the NDX make new highs at the beginning of last week, before losing ground by the end of the week. It established a new closing high of 4965 and intra-day high of 4992. All three major averages remain above long term weekly moving averages.

Short term, the bias remains to the upside, as all 3 major indices continue above 50% retracement levels of the last leg up. Near term, we saw weakness move into equities last week as MACD’s fell below signal. The NDX and SPX fell below their 20D-SMA’s of 4893 and 2249, respectively. The averages also broke below the ‘bull handle’ they were developing, suggesting they will need to rebuild for the next leg up. Critical near term support for the NDX is 4721 and 2187 for the SPX.

A Bullish Start

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on pace to open up more than 100 points higher on this first trading day of 2017. Europe is also up in morning trading.

In terms of economic reports today, we’ll see the Construction Spending numbers as well as the latest ISM Index data both at 10:00am.

the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) rose $1.32 (+0.67%) in premarket trading Tuesday. DIA currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #6 of 76 ETFs in the Large Cap Value ETFs category.

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