Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Slowed In November

November 24, 2015 by

manufacturing growthJill Mislinski:  Today the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index dropped 2 points to -3 from last month’s -1. Investing.com had forecast an increase to 0. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at -3.0, indicating contraction. The complete data series behind today’s Richmond Fed manufacturing report (available here), which dates from November 1993.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing

Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments remained sluggish and new orders declined. Hiring in the sector changed little compared to the previous month, while the average workweek shortened and wages rose mildly. Raw materials prices rose at a somewhat faster pace, while prices of finished goods increased modestly in November.

Manufacturers’ expectations were less optimistic in November compared to October. However, they still looked for an improvement in business conditions during the next six months. Compared to October’s outlook, producers expected slower growth in shipments and in the volume of new orders in the six months ahead. Compared to current conditions, firms anticipated faster growth in backlogs and capacity utilization during the next six months, and. expectations for vendor lead times were expected to change little in the next six months. Link to Report

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

since 2000

Is today’s Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We’ll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).

Because of the high volatility of this series, we should take the data for any individual month with the proverbial grain of salt.

Let’s compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

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