October Consumer Price Index: Up Fractionally From September

inflationJill Mislinski:  The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October CPI data this morning. The year-over-year unadjusted Headline CPI came in at 0.17%, up from -0.04% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.91% (rounded t0 1.9%), little changed from the previous month’s 1.89% (rounded to 1.9%).

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy all increased modestly in October. The food index, which increased 0.4 percent in September, rose 0.1 percent in October, with four of the six major grocery store food group indexes rising. The energy index, which declined in August and September, advanced 0.3 percent in October; major energy component indexes were mixed.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October, the same increase as in September. Advances in the indexes for shelter and medical care were the largest contributors to the increase, with the indexes for personal care, airline fares, recreation, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco also rising. In contrast, the indexes for apparel, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks all declined in October.

The all items index rose 0.2 percent over the last 12 months. The 12-month change has been between negative 0.2 percent and positive 0.2 percent since January. The food index has increased 1.6 percent over the past year, and the index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.9 percent. These advances have been mostly offset by a 17.1 percent decline in the energy index. [More…]

Investing.com was looking for a 0.2% MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Core CPI and 0.2% in the MoM Headline CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 0.1% for Headline and 1.9% for Core.

The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve’s Core inflation target for the CPI’s cousin index, the BEA’s Personal Consumptions Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Headline and Core CPI since 2000

The next chart shows both series since 1957, which was the first time the government began tracking Core Inflation.

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