Michael Oliver and Ron Paul Help Us Envision a Possible End Game

T-Bond

Oliver stated that if the U.S. T-Bond managed to rise above the parallel channels shown on the chart above, it would suggest that the T-Bond is setting up for an exhaustive upside blow-off top. Specifically, Michael’s momentum work identified a T-Bond price of 170 that if exceeded by the end of June would signal odds for an exhaustive upside blow-off top that would end the 35-year bull market in U.S. Treasuries.

Well the verdict is in. The chart above right shows that the T-Bond finished the month of June at $173.22, or $173.6875 if you don’t like to deal in 32nds. I hope to ask Michael about this matter on my radio show next Tuesday, but clearly, based on his June 22nd missive, the table is set now, not for a whimper-like end of the greatest bubble bull market in history—the bull market for long-dated U.S. Treasuries, but for a possible violent reversal, sending interest rates rising very, very dramatically. To quote Michael, “If it (T-Bond market) opts to blow off to the upside first, then it’s likely the subsequent failure down through this up-trending structure will be even more savage than if it simply withered and dropped through the uptrend without having entered into a blow-off phase before the downturn.

About Jay Taylor

Jay Taylor is editor of J Taylor's Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks newsletter. His interest in the role gold has played in U.S. monetary history led him to research gold and into analyzing and investing in junior gold shares. Currently he also hosts his own one-hour weekly radio show Turning Hard Times Into Good Times,” which features high profile guests who discuss leading economic issues of our day. The show also discusses investment opportunities primarily in the precious metals mining sector. He has been a guest on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg and BNN and many mining conferences.