It’s All About The Referendum Now.

* No negotiations, just a new poll .
* Aussie Retails Sales print soft deep six A$’s.
* U.S. Data Cupboard was not what it was supposed to be..
* Dollar is broadly weaker this morning.

And now. Today’s A Pfennig For Your Thoughts.

Good day. And a Happy Friday to one and all! A lot, and I mean a lot of people here in the U.S. are off work today, as the 4th of July falls on a Saturday. My wife informed me the other night at dinner that it is common for businesses to close on the Friday, when the national holiday falls on a Saturday. Hmmm, I was unaware of that! I’ve always gone with the flow on holidays, if the Federal Reserve Bank is open, then our bank is open, period. The stock market is closed today, so the stock jockeys get a head start on the holiday weekend, and things will pretty much close down around noon today, so now you know!

Speaking of now knowing. I did not know about the Saturday Holiday thing. I guess if it didn’t ever cross the trading desk, I wasn’t aware of it! The Moody Blues greet me this morning, with their song: Lost In A Lost World, just another great song from the Seventh Sojourn album. And what the heck happened to my beloved Cardinals? Oh well, it is a Friday, I’m at home, hopefully the monsoon rains we’ve experienced will take a break for the weekend so I can fire up the Big Green Egg, and it’s time to talk about the markets, economies, dolts, and dingbats. As if I really could!

On a sidebar, I told our lead legal guy about year ago, that he always asked me politely to not call people dolts, but he never asked me to not call myself a dolt! HA!

Well, the dollar, which had the conn yesterday, seems to have lost the grip VS most currencies this morning, with the Aussie dollar (A$) the exception to the rule. The A$ has lost over 1 full cent overnight after a very weak Retail Sales for May, which came in at just 0.3% growth VS 0.5% expected. The markets were quite surprised by this soft print, especially considering that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates in May, and the fact that Consumer Confidence was so strong. But, surprise!

In the Eurozone, there was another poll/ survey taken in Greece yesterday, and this one was split right down the middle, which is no indication of how the referendum will go on Sunday. But the euro is stronger this morning again, marking two days of gains for the beleaguered and beaten down single unit. Man, you can’t throw a stone without hitting another article regarding Greece, their debt, their referendum, a Grexit, and so on. I do try to read as many as I can, in an attempt to make certain I’ve not missed anything, but in the end, it’s just reading the same stuff over and over again, and it’s beginning to give me a rash! I have to wonder what the Greeks have on their collective minds going into the referendum. It’s like a situation where you have to pick your poison.

I did see an article headline on Bloomberg this morning that asked the question, “What if Greece Thrived After Euro Exit?” I didn’t click on the article, because I can tell you right here, right now, that IF that’s what the writer is trying to say, then he’s smoking something illegal, because there’s no way that Greece will thrive, being outside of the Eurozone, inflation will be soaring from the devalued currency, and they will not be able to go to the markets for funding because they just left all their creditors high and dry, and they won’t be able to go to the markets for probably a generation. Tell me how they will thrive under those circumstances!

I did see some data from other members of Club Med, both Spain and Italy printed flash PMI’s (manufacturing indexes) and from the looks of things, the goings on in Greece haven’t spilled over to these two countries and their respective economies. I do believe that people that think if Greece opts to leave the euro, which technically they can’t, but would do so anyway, that it would have a contagion effect with the other Club Med countries and then all Hell breaks loose in the Eurozone, are wrong. Greece should have never been a part of the Eurozone, they cheated to get in, and that’s wrong, just plain wrong! So, I’m not a believer of the contagion theory, and like I say all the time, Spain & Italy and Portugal for that matter, get down on their knees every night and thank their Good Lord that they are a part of the Eurozone. Sure there are rough patches that these two countries are having to work through right now, but I do believe that they see the end goal, and it’s in sight.

The Jobs Jamboree saw some revisions to their previous month’s numbers. The BLS said the total jobs created was 223,000 (233,000 was expected). But here’s the thing that most people won’t mention, or even see. There was a two month total revision to previous month’s numbers, downward of 60,000 jobs that were previously counted as “created”. And I’ll show you something else that was a part of the report. Longtime readers know that I prefer to watch the Avg. Hourly Earnings and Avg. Weekly Hours. And here’s where, you know that the Fed members are watching to see if there are any signs of wage growth. Unfortunately, their search will bear no fruit, in that the Avg. Hourly Earnings saw no growth month to month, and a drop to 2% from 2.3% on an annual basis.

Oh, and the BLS decided that adding 213,000 jobs out of thin air the last two months, was probably going a little too far, and decided to add just 109,000 jobs to the surveys for June. But, basically I don’t care anymore. I just don’t care anymore, I don’t care what you say, I don’t play the same games you play! Yes, I would pull that Phil Collins song out of my hat and sing it to the BLS if they ever showed their face around here!

And since I’m talking data, I might as well visit the rest of the data that the U.S. Data Cupboard had for us yesterday. Things like the Labor Force Participation Rate, which posted a low that goes back to 1977 of 62.6%… And May Factory Orders, which printed worse than expected, and the expectations were already prepared for a negative number! May Factory orders printed at -1%, and April’s negative print of -0.4% was revised downward to -0.7%… So, it wasn’t an exceptional day for the U.S. Data Cupboard, eh?

As you can imagine with the stock market closed, and everything closing up around noon today, that there are no data prints on the docket today. So, let’s do a recap of the data. the Avg. Hourly Earnings were weaker, the previous two month’s jobs totals were reduced by 60,000, The Labor Force Participation Rate is tracking 1977, and Factory Orders were more negative than expected. Hmmm. I guess the only thing the dollar bugs could hang their hats on was the number of jobs that were allegedly created. Hmmm. That’s where I would check with John Williams over at Shadowstats.com to see what he shows as the Unemployment rate here in the U.S.

OK, here are the broad strokes. the drop in the Unemployment Rate from 5.5% to 5.3% was basically a reflection of the fact that 375,000 Unemployed people were dropped from the Labor Force, and was NOT a reflection of a strong labor market. Shadowstats.com still have the Unemployment Rate in the U.S. at 23% (actually 23.1%). I always feel better about the stuff I talk about and say after seeing the truth from John Williams.

And believe it or don’t, but Gold is not getting sold this morning! It’s actually up $2, as if a $2 gain can erase the damage that has been inflicted on Gold’s value this week! I was reading a very long article on www.bullionstar.com that was written by Gold researcher Koos Jansen yesterday, and figured it was so long that I would never get it on the album cover man! HA! But in the report, I was taken aback by the stuff that Koos Jansen was talking about, regarding what he had found in research, emails, twitter, and other correspondence with the former head of Ft. Knox. For anyone that has an ounce of conspiracy blood in them and have questioned what is really at Ft. Know, then you’ll want to read this article, but make sure you have allotted enough time to get through it. Like I said it is long, and full of heavy details. So, just click on the link above and find the Ft. Knox article by Koos Jansen.

To recap. It’s a Friday before a Holiday tomorrow, so the stock market is closed, and things will begin to shut down around noon today. Thin volume, and thin markets, these are days we have to watch out for wild swings. We haven’t had one of those thin markets wild swings in a while, so many people might think I’m crying wolf here. And that may be, but. I’d rather warn you of these things than to have them spring up and bite you in the, ask me no more questions, I’ll tell you no more lies, behind the refrigerator there was a piece of glass. the Jobs Jamboree was full of “adjustments” some good, some bad, but the Hourly Earnings saw a big drop, and that won’t make the Fed happy. Overall the data yesterday was not good. But of course there will be those rose colored glasses wearers that think the data was good. Soft Retail Sales sinks the A$ overnight, but overall the dollar is broadly lower VS most currencies.

For What It’s Worth. I’m going to stray from the usual stuff this morning, since tomorrow is Independence Day here in the U.S. I ran across this website that I kind of thought was neat, and the website has a list of the 15 greatest Rock-n-Roll songs for the 4th of July.

So here we go with the Top 15.
15. Jack Straw – the Grateful Dead
14. 4th of July – Shooter Jennings
13. Saturday in the Park – Chicago
12. 4th of July – Azure Ray
11. Spit – Michael Dean Damron
10. 4th of July – Aimee Mann
9. Fourth of July – Galaxie 500
8. Tears of Rage – the Band
7. 4th of July – Paul McCartney
6. 4th of July – Beach Boys
5. Independence Day – Martina McBride
4. Born on a Bayou – Credence Clearwater Revival
3. 4th of July – X
2. Born Free – Kid Rock
1. 4th of July, Asbury Park (Sandy) – Bruce Springsteen

Chuck again. Well, I have to honestly say that 1. I didn’t know there were so many songs titled 4th of July, and 2. I can honestly say that I haven’t heard of over ½ of these songs! But it was a fun exercise. And my friend Kevin will be happy as a clam that Kid Rock had a song so high on the list! HA!

Currencies today 7/3/15. American Style: A$ .7530, kiwi .6700, C$ .7960, euro 1.1115, Sterling 1.5625, Swiss $1.0610, . European Style: rand 12.2760, krone 7.9595, SEK 84460, forint 283.95, zloty 3.7790, koruna 24.4530, RUB 55.72, yen 122.90, sing 1.3475, HKD 7.7525, INR 63.43, China 6.1160, pesos 15.70, BRL 3.0960, Dollar Index 96.00, Oil $56.55, 10-year 2.38%, Silver $15.68, Platinum $1,083.83, Palladium $691.60, and Gold. $1,168.69

That’s it for today. So. last weekend it appeared the Cardinals wouldn’t lose again, and now it appears that they may not win again! UGH! But that’s baseball. crazy stuff happens all the time. It looks ugly out, no sunshine, just overcast skies, a dreary looking day. UGH! I was really sick yesterday and didn’t eat anything, so this morning I’m looking forward to eating again! So, do you have some fun plans for the weekend? I would love to be some place where the sun is shining. Next weekend the family, minus Alex, is going camping again. For the first time in about 5 years! But if this rain pattern remains in place, I doubt that I’ll even attempt to go. It’s no fun camping in the rain! The two older kids, Dawn and Andrew, both wanted to have their kids experience camping like they did, so I commend them for that, but I’m not sure about me being in a boat. Oh well, come what it may, I’ll deal with it then! So, here’s hoping you have some fun plans for the weekend, BBQ, Pool Party, Fireworks, and don’t get me started on my feelings about Fireworks and how it is every American’s right to shoot Fireworks, throw some horse shoes or washers or bean bags, play some Indian Ball (can I still call it that?) or whatever. have some fun, and remember that it’s OUR INDEPENDENCE DAY! Ok. time to get off the bus here today, and hope you have a Fantastico Friday, and a fun and SAFE 4th of July !

Chuck Butler
Managing Director
EverBank Global Markets
Editor of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts
1-800-926-4922
https://www.everbank.com