Gold Anxiety Brings Michael Oliver To The Rescue!

On August 13, with gold getting smacked down by more than $20, Michael Oliver put out not one but two commentaries dealing with a very weak gold market. Here is part of what Michael had to say today after the markets closed on the subject of gold.

“We suggested a few months ago that it looked like gold was finally going to take out a pivotal low in the ascending pattern of higher price chart lows since its $1050 low in late 2015. To qualify as a decline we need to see at least three months of downside. Those ascending lows are noted with circles. The December 2017 low just above $1236 is now gone and the nearby July 2017 low. We also suggested said that such an obvious price chart event would generate more downside, possibly fast. We were wrong on that issue, as it took two more months after taking out the December, 2017 low just to get to $1200, finally today. 

“Besides on a meaningful scale point-and-figure chart, like the $50 x 3 block reversal chart, which only pays attention to the larger up and down moves, it has not taken out a low, but instead has set up a potential triple-top breakout level by dropping the 3 needed downticks to $1200. Bar chart watchers see negativity, point-and-figure price chart watchers do not see a column take-out, merely a set of downticks. And with those downticks they now see a pending structure overhead that is a “lid blower” if it’s ever taken out. But at least it’s a price structure that is now set-up, and that required getting down to $1200. 

“Based on annual momentum, MSA went bullish not at $1200, or $1350 gold, but at just above $1140. Our secondary breakout remains (un-signaled) a monthly close above $1340. 

“But within that larger positive context gold is nevertheless a down market for sure—down based on intermediate trend momentum metrics. We are monitoring them due to their ripeness for upturn. It’s not mere hope on our part, that does  not enter into the issue, but the age of the downside and the clarity of the escape hatches that causes us to use terms like “ripeness” for upturn.” 

So what are some key numbers Michael wants his paid subscribers to keep their eyes on?  Here they are: MSA does not want to see those specified numbers in the $1170s traded, and we do want to see signals of initial upturn produced soon, meaning this week or next. Further, we do not want to see the August monthly close below the 3-yr. avg. of $1202.90.”

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