Focus Shifts From FOMC To Greek Drama.

* One day’s rally gets squashed.
* Negotiations in Eurozone end with no agreement!.
* Oil price drops back below $60..
* It’s Father’s Day Weekend!.

And now. Today’s A Pfennig For Your Thoughts.

Good day. And a Happy Friday to one and all! How apropos. The Cure greets me this morning with their song: Friday, I’m in Love. A pick me up song for them, for sure! Good thing Jen Mclean isn’t here, she does not care for this song, because of the words. We all laugh, when she goes ape over these words. Well, the Cardinals still can’t win in Minnesota, and the rain won’t stop. Last night, our local weatherperson told us to get ready for “massive amounts of rain”. YIKES! I have a small creek at the back of my property, that likes to become a Big Creek when it rains like this, hopefully it will remain in its banks, but I doubt it.

The dollar didn’t remain in its banks yesterday, after being brought down by the Fed’s no rate hike decision on Wednesday, the dollar rallied back overnight, to end the week with a better feeling for the dollar bugs. With the FOMC meeting out of the way, the markets quickly shifted gears, and returned to the Greek Drama. The Eurogroup and Greece met yesterday, and made no progress on an agreement. Greek PM Tsipras continues to talk about how a deal can be done very easily, while the Germans continue to talk about how uncooperative he’s been. This is all games being played, like the old Joe South song. The games people play now, every night and every day now, never meaning what they say, never saying what the mean. That pretty much sums up what’s gone on with these negotiations, that won’t get down to the cheese that binds until we come to the end of the month, for that’s when Greece has to pay the IMF for the 4 loan payments that were due during the month, that Greece got the IMF to roll all up into one payment. The IMF has already told Greece that there will be no wiggle room on when the payment is to be made. So, it’s down to making the payment, with aid that was negotiated through an agreement, or not making the payment.

So, this morning, I can only see one currency that is on the positive side of the ledger VS the dollar. And it’s the Chinese renminbi, which was allowed to appreciate overnight for a second consecutive session. Gold is flat, to down a few pennies, and the euro, which is feeling the heat of another session without an agreement, has lost 1-full cent from yesterday’s level.

The dollar didn’t get any help from yesterday’s data, not that it was bad, it just wasn’t good either! So, since I mentioned U.S. data, I might as well go through the details, eh? The U.S. Data Cupboard was another mixed-bag-o-data yesterday, as the 1st QTR Current Account Deficit wasn’t as large ($113.3 Billion) and expected ($117.3 Billion), as if that’s a major change for our debt! The stupid CPI was not as high as expected, printing at 0.4% instead of 0.5%, but the year on year number fell to 1.7% from 1.8% in April. If the Fed actually looked at CPI, they would be heartbroken this morning, as it appears they will never reach their 2% target for inflation! The Philly Fed Business Optimism and leading Index were both stronger than expected, so that was the good of the day.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) met last night, and kept all monetary things unchanged, but in the press conference afterward, BOJ Gov. Kuroda, who you might recall stroked a rout on the dollar last week by talking about how the downward move in yen was too overdone, and had been too far, too fast. Well last night, he was all tail between his legs when he told the audience that “he had no intention of specifying currency levels or speed of moves and that he can’t say a weak yen is negative for Japan’s economy.” Hmmm. What a bunch of crock! He did too mean to specify the FX moves in yen. But I guess that was before he got the memo from his boss the Finance Minister, who then answers to Prime Minister, Abe. Ahhh, that’s right, one of Abe’s ideas in his 3 arrows was to weaken yen to promote growth. See how this all ties together now? And yen has not yet given up the ground it gained after the Kuroda speech last week, so I guess the media didn’t want anything to do with his mea culpa last night!

On a sidebar. Yesterday was Paul McCartney’s 73rd birthday. He still looks great doesn’t he? And at 73, he’s still doing concerts. He takes off his jacket after a song or two, rolls up the sleeves of his white shirt, and gets to rockin’! Happy Birthday, Paul!

And you know, I’ve been remiss in congratulating the Golden State Warriors on their NBA Championship. St. Louisan, David Lee, plays for Golden State, so that means a St. Louisan is a World Basketball Champion! And for all you readers offshore from the U.S. don’t snicker. If there’s a team abroad that can beat an NBA team in a series, I haven’t seen them! Look at what the Olympic teams do to teams in the Olympic games.

The Norwegian krone has really taken the Norges Bank rate cut like a shot to the midsection. The krone has had the wind knocked out of it, and I don’t see it getting to its feet any time soon, for it wasn’t just a rate cut by the Norges Bank, it was also the damaging talk after the rate cut announcement, that has the krone down for the count. The Norges Bank is probably smiling like the Cheshire Cat, and now that they see that they can move the krone with words, they’ll probably keep coming back to spew more words. So, batten down the hatches here folks, this once prudent central bank has gone rogue on us. UGH!

Like I said above, Gold is flat to down a few pennies this morning, no big shakes. The shiny metal did climb back above $1,200 yesterday to $1,203. But nothing has changed here, folks. Gold is waiting for inflation to take off, or a Black Swan event to scare everyone back to the safety of Gold, before it makes its next move. But just to be fair and balanced on this. Remember when I told you two years ago that Harry Dent, said that Gold would fall to $750? Well, now he says that Gold will be $250 by 2020.. I’m sure that’s a misprint. What? What’s that? It’s not a misprint? WOW! Pretty strange that he would make that forecast now, especially with the world in a tinder box that contains Wars, nuclear proliferation, exploding debt, social unrest, and Government defaults.

Gold researcher extraordinaire, Koos Jansen, wrote in his posting on that “the Bank of England has recently released its annual report in which it’s disclosed the Gold held in custody for a range of customers was 5,134 metric tonnes on February 28, 2015, down 351 tonnes (6 %) form the previous year.” Koos Jansen then goes through all sorts of numbers as to whom owns what, and so on, and comes to a number that he believes is pretty close to being accurate, and that is that there is an estimated 3,238 tonnes of floating supply of Gold in London. That’s good to know, given that China has been importing more than the World’s production the past few years.

The price of Oil dropping from the week’s high of $61.18 on Wednesday, down to today’s $59.82, hasn’t helped the krone, or the Canadian dollar / loonie, the Russian ruble, or Brazilian real either. But there’s always bad U.S. data next week that can lift these currencies out of their doldrums they are experiencing this morning. There’s no data in the U.S. Data Cupboard today, not one piece of data, but that all changes next week. And on Tuesday, we’ll probably see a negative print for Durable Goods from May, and a very weak Capital Goods Orders. So, it’s just a couple of days of trading to deal with the renewed dollar buying. (at least that’s how I see it, and I could be wrong, of course!)

I put the finishing touches on the monthly client only newsletter called the Review & Focus, this week, and as always, they come back to me with questions about the stuff I write. Hmmm. But one thing I did highlight, and will tell you about as a “teaser” now is “The dollar continues to hold the edge over the currencies and metals, but I have to wonder for how much longer? We’re in a bind, and we’re way behind, and there doesn’t seem to be anyone to save us. Oh, woe is me. Which is why I believe we should remain diversified, and even pick up more diversification when we can with the prices as cheap as they are. For all this debt, all the wars, all the stimulus, and all the other “stuff,” things are not going to end up well for the dollar. And, yes, that’s my opinion and I could be wrong.”

To recap. The dollar fights back, once again giving us the one day down, next day up in the currencies. The focus for the markets shifted from the FOMC to the Greek Drama, and with no agreement nailed down at the meetings yesterday, the heat was applied to the euro. The Chinese renminbi is the only currency carving out a gain VS the dollar this morning. The price of Oil has retreated back below $60, and has really put pressure on the petrol currencies. the Norges Bank is being tough on the krone, which is disappointing for me, given that I once considered the Norges Bank a “prudent Central Bank”. Gold is flat this morning, after climbing back above $1,200 yesterday. And there’s no data in the U.S. Data Cupboard today, but next week it gets going again, are you ready?

For What It’s Worth. I have a bit of a treat for you all today. I have a good friend named Dennis Miller, who is the author of a book titled: Retirement Reboot. He used to pen a newsletter for the Casey Research people, on retirement stuff. But Casey was sold to another publisher, who dropped Dennis’ letter. But he’s landing on his feet folks. And this article that appeared in the Huffington Post tells all about Dennis. You can read the article here:

And as always I have a couple of snippets of the article for you here. “You do not have to retire as soon as you hit your goal amount. Staying young is a matter of attitude,” says Miller, who at 74 is moving with his wife from Florida to Arizona, because one of the items on his bucket list is to live in the desert.

According to Miller, having a sense of purpose in life is essential, speaking with admiration of the grey-haired workers he sees at McDonald’s and Wal-Mart. “Many of them have accumulated a great bit of wealth, but they still want to work a few days a week to feel like they are making a contribution.”

Miller, who retired at 64, has just re-entered the workforce to write a financial newsletter for his peers and says of this experience, “I never thought my working life could be fun, but it actually is when you are enjoying your work instead of doing it to pay the bills.” He has also written a full account of his story in a free eBook called Retirement Reboot. He is a retiree mentor for MarketWatch because he loves learning and helping others.”

Chuck again. Yes, that’s my friend, Dennis Miller. He truly sees it as his mission to help people who are either retired or nearing retirement to make wise choices with their money, so that they can be assured that they have enough to last them through their life. When Dennis signs on with a new publisher, as I’m sure he will soon, I’ll let you know where he lands, so you can sign up and get his wise thoughts.

Currencies today 6/19/15. American Style: A$ .7760, kiwi .6900, C$ .8155, euro 1.1305, sterling 1.5845, Swiss $1.0815, . European Style: rand 12.2665, krone 7.7940, SEK 8.1555, forint 276.65, zloty 3.0590, koruna 24.0570, RUB 54.40, yen 123.15, sing 1.3370, HKD 7.7515, INR 63.55, China 6.1104, pesos 15.34, BRL 3.0730, Dollar Index 94.37, Oil $59.82, 10-year 2.30%, Silver $16.18, Platinum $1,087.83, Palladium $719.55, and Gold. $1,203.35

That’s it for today. the Young Rascals are playing their song: Groovin’ on the iPod right now. That’s what I hope to be doing Groovin’ on a Sunday Afternoon, this Sunday, as it will be Father’s Day! I hear that we might see the sun for part of the day on Sunday, that would be ecstasy, you and me, Groovin’ on a Sunday afternoon, really, couldn’t get away too soon. Bet that song is now in your head! HA! But Sunday IS Father’s Day. We have a few “new fathers’ on the trading desk, and then there’s the old timers like me, Frank, Jack, and Ty, who probably enjoy the day the most. The only bummer to the day is that my dad, or Kathy’s dad isn’t around any longer to share the day with. My beloved Cardinals still can’t win in Minnesota, and now head to Philadelphia, where they will have their all-world pitcher waiting for us. UGH! I sure would like to see that guy wearing the birds on the bat! Alex is really stepping us his training for the ½ ironman he’s going to be swimming, biking and running in this August. Just a friendly reminder, about a month from now, I’ll give you the link to his pledge website. You see, he’s doing this as a fund raiser for his fraternity and ALS. Apparently Lou Gehrig was in the same fraternity and so they have a huge fund raiser each year for ALS. So, watch for that, and let’s see how much we can raise for ALS! OK. Time to get off this bus today. I hope you all have a Fantastico Friday, and for the Dads. A Super Sunday, Father’s Day!

Fathers young, fathers old
Remembering good times are our gold.

Value earned through guidance given
Helping us go forth in living’.

Each father adding to our trove
A treasure chest of love untold.

Remembering father in our lives
Taking time to realize.

Fatherly love brings wealth to living
Remembering this we go forth in giving.

Fathers young, fathers old
We remember you all
As life unfolds.

Chuck Butler
Managing Director
EverBank Global Markets
Editor of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts