Daily Digest 7/9 – JPMorgan Says Bond Rally Faces ‘Tantrum’ Risk, Lithium Industry At A Crossroads


Deutsche Bank just launched its last, best chance to save itself (Thomas R.)

But investors and analysts are skeptical that the bank can hit its new revenue targets amid a costly overhaul. Shares fell more than 5% Friday in a stinging vote of no-confidence.

“The extent of the restructuring indicates an acceptance and willingness for change,” Thomas Hallett, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said in a note Monday. “The key challenge is execution.”

JPMorgan says bond-market rally faces risk of ‘tantrum’ like 2013 and 2016 (Thomas R.)

“Investors who target a stable Value-at-Risk, which is the size of their positions times volatility, tend to take larger positions when volatility is low. But the same investors are forced to cut their positions when volatility rises or hit by a shock, triggering self-reinforcing, volatility induced selling,” said Panigirtzoglou.

I Hear That Train a’Comin’ (thc0655)

The cover-story for all that is the completely insane doctrine called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which states that a nation with the world’s reserve currency can never go bankrupt as long as it can keep “printing” more money — or punching computer keystrokes into the “systemically important” (Too Big to Fail) bank accounts. When that train goes off the rails — as it must, because it’s at-odds with reality — it will be the biggest wreck in history, and it will bring all the operations of advanced societies to a stop, including raw materials supply lines, manufacturing, global trade, and industrial-scale Agri-Biz. The last of these will be especially punishing in a world where bad weather is hammering this year’s grain production.

FBI and ICE use DMV photos as ‘gold mine’ for facial recognition data (newsbuoy)

ICE wouldn’t discuss how it used facial recognition. The FBI, however, pointed to testimony from Deputy Assistant Director Kimberly Del Greco in June. She defended the technology, claiming that it helped “preserve” both freedoms and security. However, that’s not necessarily true. False positives and abuses of power could lead to arrests of innocent people. And without a legal framework that ensures consistent and transparent data requests, there’s no strong way to prevent misuses going forward.

Weaker growth will offset a Fed rate cut—so sell stocks, warns Morgan Stanley (Thomas R.)

Morgan Stanley is expecting a rate cut, but Sheets argues history shows that when central banks cut because growth is weak, it is the weakness that matters more for stocks in the end. “If you don’t believe us, we have some European stocks from April 2015, shortly after the European Central Bank’s first QE program was announced, that we’d like to sell you”, he added.

Pfizer Looks Pretty Smart With Array BioPharma Purchase. Here’s Why. (Thomas R.)

Array’s colorectal cancer drugs were a major draw for Pfizer (ticker: PFE), which hoped to build on its own offerings in the space. Analysts said the results—which confirmed results Array (ARRY) had previewed in May—will likely have no impact on the Pfizer deal, since it likely priced in the study’s findings. If anything, the new data seems to validate Pfizer’s strategy.

Noncompliance Kneecaps New Zealand’s Gun Control Scheme (Thomas R.)

“I chose firearms for the affect it would have on social discourse,” the killer wrote in a document he released to explain his crimes. “The gun owners of New Zealand are a beaten, miserable bunch of baby boomers, who have long since given up the fight. When was the last time they won increased rights? Their loss was inevitable. I just accelerated things a bit.”

Politicians fulfilled the murderer’s predictions with panic-driven legislation.

Why Irrational Socialist Schemes Must be Implemented (thc0655)

Cost estimates vary for all the above, particularly the Green New Deal, but if they were all implemented, as has been recommended by many candidates, a bit of arithmetic would put the estimated annual cost per household at between $37,000 and $57,000.

How Much Will Healthcare Cost You in Retirement? Try $369,000. (Thomas R.)

Clearly, that’s a pretty big number. But if you’re worried about $285,000, here’s worse news: According to consulting firm Milliman, the average healthy 65-year-old couple retiring in 2019 will spend $369,000 on healthcare in retirement. That’s a pretty substantial jump from Fidelity’s number, and it’s based on Medicare costs coupled with projected healthcare inflation rates. It’s also meant to cover a couple made up of one male and one female with life spans of 87 and 89, respectively.

OPEC: Oil & Gas Are Part Of Solution To Climate Change (Thomas R.)

OPEC’s position that the world will need oil and gas in order to provide access to electricity to more than 1 billion people is similar to that of many oil majors, while climate change activists have been mobilizing in recent years and months to call on the world leaders to pay immediate attention to the devastating effects of global warming.

Lithium industry at a crossroad (Thomas R.)

Albemarle Corp, the world’s largest lithium producer, said on Tuesday it will not participate in the London Metal Exchange’s plan to launch a new contract for the white metal, depriving it of a key source of pricing data.

Volkswagen finds itself having to pressure battery suppliers to commit to electric cars (Thomas R.)

He also said, “We have not been able to build as many cars as we wanted to. Our supplier is not delivering the numbers that we need.” But it’s unclear who he was referring to in this case — whether it was Samsung, or others.

Earth’s Ancient Life Forms Are Awakening After 40,000 Years in Permafrost (Thomas R.)

Researchers in a warming Arctic are discovering organisms, frozen and presumed dead for millennia, that can bear life anew. These ice age zombies range from simple bacteria to multicellular animals, and their endurance is prompting scientists to revise their understanding of what it means to survive.

Gold & Silver

Click to read the PM Daily Market Commentary: 7/5/19

Provided daily by the Peak Prosperity Gold & Silver Group

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