D-Day Remembered…

A Pfennig For Your Thoughts
 
June 6, 2022
 
* Friday’s job Jambore was a farce… 
* The dollar gets sold in the overnight markets… 
 
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, as usual, when I get scanned, I have to drink the barium for contrast, and the barium has always upset my stomach, and then you add in my daily chemo, and I’m thrown for a loop for 24 hours… And that’s what happened last Thursday to Friday morning, but then I was good to go! Good Friend Mike came by and we sat outside watching the Cardinals, Golf, and Hockey! Today, we remember, D-Day, June 6, 1944… Project Overlord, was the largest invasion by sea in history… Jane’s Addiction greets me this morning with their song: Been Caught Stealing… 
 
Well, the dollar rallied on Friday, after the Jobs Jamboree said that there were 390,000 jobs created in May… Well, I’m here to tell you that the BLS in their infinite wisdom decided to add 213,000 jobs to the surveys they received.. Now, would the dollar have gained on the day if the jobs number was 177,000? Far below the expectations? I doubt it… but then, there’s always the PPT with their treasure trove of funds, in the Exchange Stabilization Fund, that can be used at any time to prop up the dollar… But with the markets being blind to the fact that the BLS number is fake, they bought dollars… Because… with employment so strong, supposedly, there’s nothing keeping the Fed Heads from hiking rates further, which increases the dollar’s yield differential to other currencies…
 
The BBDXY moved higher on Friday and closed at 1,229.93, up over 4 index points on the day. Gold lost $17.20 on the day to close the week at $1,851.30, and Silver lost 36-cents to close the week at $21.90. I get why Gold & Silver lost ground on Friday, IF…. You believe the BLS report on jobs… But If I were still a trader I would be pointing out the discrepancy, and making a big deal out of it… But then again, no one ever listened to me, then, so why would they listen to me now? Back in 2001, when I wrote the white paper titled: The Decline of the Dollar, and we tried to get the press to comment on it, no one would touch it with a ten foot pole, but… once the dollar began its 10 year slide in Feb 2002, everyone wanted to talk to me and ask me how I knew this was coming…
 
All the facts were there, staring people in the face, but no one wanted to believe what they were seeing… except me, of course! The dollar’s trend has run its course, now, starting with the exposure of the debts of Europe in 2011, but this time, things are different, in that, the markets no longer move on fundamentals, and instead are driven by 1. Trader sentiment, and 2. The Exchange Stabilization Fund… , and that’s all I have to say about that!
 
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold, and erased the dollar’s gain from Friday. The BBDXY is down 2 index points this morning, and Gold is up $3 in early trading, while Silver is out in front of eveything else this morning and is up 41-cents… The price of Oil is unchanged at $118.87, and Bonds are getting that feeling that there will no longer be support for them from the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel.. The 10-year’s yield has risen to 2.95%… 
 
So, there’s been a recall vote on Boris Johnson in the U.K., and it looks like he’s in trouble, but we’ll have to wait-n-see… Also, the Swiss Bank UBS, issued a press release that said, “UBS thinks that buying the Australian dollar (A$) is a phenomenal trade.” Hmmm… apparently, UBS is long A$’s, and they need everyone to buy to prop up their trade… I know, I know I’m being cynical here, and it bothers me because I happen to agree with them… 
 
I came across this bit of information on Friday last week… MarketWatch had this article that I’m going to give you a snippet of here regarding the dollar’s diminishing importance around the world: “The U.S. dollar’s status as the dominant global reserve currency shows few signs of waning, despite a flurry of challenges from Russia and China, as MarketWatch reported this week.
 
But if the dollar does eventually cede its status as the most popular currency for central-bank reserves, international trade and bank deposits, then this latest data point will likely be remembered as a milestone.
 
On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund reported that the percentage of international currency reserves denominated in dollars has fallen below 59% to a new low of 58.81%.” 
 
58%? Wow, that’s low… I remember years ago, when I was doing presentations, I would talk about how the dollar had fallen to 63% of international reserves denominated in dollars… To me, this tells me that all the talk about how countries are dumping dollars is coming to fruition… I’m just saying… 
 
OK, I was going to write about this last week, but decided that it just wasn’t worth getting everyone all riled up… I’m talking about the news that the U.S. was going to supply Ukraine with a rocket system… When I heard that, my mind immediately went to the thought that this was a bad thing to do, because Russia could convey that as an act of war against them… Well, as the weekend went on, that’s exactly what Russia thought, and Putin warned the U.S. that Russia would attack Western cities if Ukraine uses the rocket system we provided them… Now, this could all be saber rattling, or it could be the last thing on earth we want to hear… Because, once you get the two heavyweights in the ring, the nuclear weapons come out… Now, that’s a comforting thought today, isn’t it? I’m sorry but this was on my mind all weekend, and when something’s on my mind, longtime readers know, that I’m going to write about it! I have to hope that all this is just saber rattling, but when you deal with the likes of Putin, you have to take him for his word… I have something for you in the FWIW section today regarding all this, make sure you don’t miss it!
 
The U.S. Data Cupboard this week is basically bare for most of the week, with only the stupid CPI for May printing on Friday this week… The U.S. Data recently has been disappointing at best, but it still doesn’t point to a recession… The Atlanta Fed’s program that first told us that the 1st QTR GDP would be negative, are showing that the 2nd QTR GDP will be 1.1%… So, that negates a recession… But this slow moving, very uneven economy is still prevalent in our daily lives…
 
To recap… The Jobs Jamboree last Friday set the tone for dollar trading the rest of the day.. The BLS added 213,000 jobs to the surveys, to make the job creation number look good for May, and the markets went hook line and sinker for the trumped up report. The BBDXY rallied over 4 index points on the day, and Gold & Silver both gave back the gains they had made the day before.
 
For What It’s Worth… Well, the Davos crowd, that likes to think they know better than al of us, was still at it last week, and came to debate between Henry Kissenger, and George Soros, regarding what should be the course of action in Ukraine… And that article can be found here: Davos 2022: The Octogenarian Oligarch Cage Match – Gold Goats ‘n Guns (tomluongo.me)
 
Or, here’s your snippet: “I never thought I’d live to see the day when the “Too Old to Rule the World, But Too Young to Die Crowd” (apologies Ian Anderson) would meet at Davos and fight over what to do about Russia.
 
In a twenty-four hour period two of the most influential men on the planet came out swinging as to what course of action the Davos Crowd should take in Ukraine.
 
The first blows were landed by Mr. Realpolitik, Henry Kissinger, who most people were surprised to find was still alive. Kissinger true to form told everyone that it was time to begin negotiations for a settlement with Russia soon.
 
“Negotiations on peace need to begin in the next two months or so, [before the conflict] creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome,” the 98-year-old veteran diplomat said of the crisis. The outcome will determine the rest of Europe’s relationships with Russia and Ukraine alike, he said. “Ideally, the dividing line should return to the status quo ante,” he said.
 
“I believe pursuing the war beyond that point would turn it not into a war about the freedom of Ukraine, which had been undertaken with great cohesion by NATO, but into a war against Russia itself,” he added.
 
Kissinger is simply talking sense, knowing full well that the situation in Ukraine is getting very close to militarily unsalvageable for Ukraine. You know things are bad when the British Press is now acknowledging this, even though The Telegraph was told to change the original headline.
 
Even Western reporters on the ground there are admitting the truth…
 
The front in the Donbass is collapsing on the heels of the surrender, sorry “evacuation,” from the Azovstal Steel Factory of the Azov Regimen’s top commanders.
 
The Ukrainians aren’t just running out of ammunition, the men are running out of morale. When you break the will of an army, it doesn’t matter what you try to force feed into the conflict it won’t change the outcome. If reports are true Ukraine will only see about 15% of the $40 billion the Biden Junta approved last week.”
 
Chuck again… Well, it’s difficult for me to agree with Henry Kissinger on anything, but in this case I’m in full agreement, we need to find a solution/ compromise/ end of the war, before it escalates further!
 
Market Prices 6/ 6/ 2022: American Style: A$ .7222, kiwi .6527, C$ .7960, euro 1.0729, sterling 1.2565, Swiss $1.0396, European Style: rand 15.3087, krone 9.4002, SEK 9.7430, forint 361.70, zloty 4.2716, koruna 23.0454, RUB 61.70, yen 130.64, sing 1.3731, HKD 7.8455, INR 77.63, China 6.6396, peso 19.49, BRL 4.7780, BBDXY 1,227.00, Dollar Index 102.12, Oil $118.87, 10-year 2.95%, Silver $22.33, Platinum $1,033.00, Palladium $2,021.00, Copper $4.37, and Gold… $1,854.47
 
For What It’s Worth… Well, late last week, I finally broke down and went out to buy a new laptop… I did so, brought it home and it wouldn’t turn on… UGH! I had to take it back, and buy a different one! I was NOT a happy camper! But the new one works just great, no problems, and I’m up and running this morning, without problems, and I have to tell you that at my age, I’m not good with problems any longer! I call them “frustrations”.. And you can hear me saying, “I need these frustrations like I need a hole in my head!” So, yesterday was the graduation party of Ms. Allison Road… My… time has passed! She’s a grown woman now, and heading to Xavier next fall… I held her when she was a baby! Congrats to her parents, Rick and Laura, you’re now empty nesters! The Temptations take us to the finish line today with their song: The Way You Do The Things You Do… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to BE Good To Yourself!
 
Chuck Butler
Creator & Editor of:
A Pfennig For Your Thoughts