Covid-19: Is The Worst Behind Us?

Data is increasingly suggesting that the first wave of covid-19 in a country (or state) is the worst. The most people get infected during that initial period, as expected with a virus with an R0 this high.

Many US states are still in their first waves, especially those in the South and West seeing re-surging infections. The battle there remains focused on preventing things from getting out of control and overwhelming the medical system.

But it’s possible that previously hard hit areas like New York, Italy and Spain may now have sufficient immunity to avoid a second wave. It’s too soon to know for certain, but if true, this will be very welcome news.

Similarly encouraging is that we now have a better handle medically on how to treat covid patients successfully with early intervention (Tocilizumab, Anakina and, yes, HCQ+). So further outbreaks can hopefully quelled earlier and with fewer mortalities.

Reason to hope? Yes. Can we let our guard down now? Absolutely not.

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