Sell And Go To Cash Position Or Hang On By Your Fingernails?

As professional traders, we spend a lot of resources determining whether we are in a bull-up market or a bear-down market. The follow-up to this is our additional efforts in finding the right places to buy or sell in either of these scenarios. As traders, we also have different styles […]

Is The US Dollar The Global Safe-Haven?

    May 4, 2022 Global investors continue to pile into the US Dollar making it the primary safe-haven trade.  This may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear. The following chart […]

Where Are Investors Putting Their Money – Now Vs. Then?

Investors have been processing high inflation reports, rising interest rates, surging energy, commodity, and real estate prices. So, what is the market saying about which markets investors have favored the last couple of years vs where are they putting their money right now? A way to determine this is to […]

Major Indexes Continue To Be Outperformed By Energy & Metals

Recent rallies in the major indexes have had a hard time hanging onto their gains lately. ETFs like XOP (S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production), XME (S&P Metals & Mining), and XLU (Utilities) have been experiencing capital inflows. At the same time, other ETFs such as DIA (30-Industrials), SPY (500-Large […]

U.S. Dollar (USD) Is On Our Radar!

Since the USD plays such a strong role in global economics, we thought it appropriate to see how the USD performance is vs. other currencies and investments. For the U.S. consumer, a strong USD means U.S. goods are more expensive in foreign markets. For U.S. companies that buy or sell […]

How To Use A ‘Collar’ To Protect Your Portfolio Against Losses

How can we protect our portfolio against losses when stocks are in a correction?  Or even if stocks are not currently in a correction?   There are many schools of thought on that.  One way is to close positions and wait for more bullish times on the sidelines.  But that may […]

The Taxman vs Traders – How To Minimize His Cut Of Your Profits

While the reality is hopefully not quite that bad, as Traders and Investors, we need to consider our silent partner, the “Taxman,” and how to minimize his cut of our profits. Having a “tax problem” can be a good “problem” to have. But we’re not obligated to pay any more […]

US Federal Reserve – Playing With Fire Part II

The US Federal Reserve has recently taken steps to communicate a change in future policy – suggesting raising interest rates and acting more aggressively to combat inflation. Throughout the last few weeks of 2021 and early 2022, these comments and posturing by the US Fed have created some very big […]

Death, Taxes, and Time Decay

Few things are certain in life.  But as the old saying goes, there is nothing quite so certain as “death and taxes”.  As an Options Trader, I would enthusiastically add option time decay to that list.   Options offer traders and investors more leverage and risk mitigation than just purchasing […]

Will 2022~23 Require A Different Strategy For Traders/Investors?

Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? – Part I Many traders struggled in 2021 with the extended price volatility and sideways price trends. Recently, news that Bridgewater’s 2021 results were saved by December’s +7.8% gain (Source: Yahoo! Finance) leads me to believe a number of independent funds and investors are […]

US Fed Actions 1999 to Present – What’s Next? Part II

Let’s continue to explore the past 20 years of US Fed actions. I believe the US Fed has created a global expansion of both economies and debts/liabilities that may become somewhat painful for foreign nations – and possibly the US. Reading The Data & What To Expect in 2022 And […]

A Major Turning Point In Stock Market Is Taking Place

Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery.  Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while […]

What Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?

November 16, 2021 Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown […]

Gold Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex

November 11, 2021 Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very […]

Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? Part II

In part one of this article, we discussed how the recent decline in Zillow, Redfin, and Opendoor share prices could reflect a concern that the risks involved in holding large home inventories while attempting to “flip houses” could present for these Real Estate firms. The recent 50% price drop in […]

Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates – Part II

As the Real Estate market shifts away from super-low interest rates and skyrocketing home prices throughout the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see the Real Estate ETFs weaken in trend and start to move lower.  The recent rising Mortgage Rates will likely continue to weaken sales trends and push […]

Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates – Part I

US Mortgage Rates have risen from levels near 2% to 2.25% earlier in 2021 to levels now above 3%. This increase in the cost of borrowing money for home purchases has a downward effect on home prices and sales. The affordability of homes is directly related to the sales price […]

Gold Inverted Head-n-Shoulders Suggests $2000+ Is Next Upside Target

After a moderately strong rebound from the $1675 lows in early August, Gold has clearly started to set up the Right Shoulder of what appears to be an Inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern. The recent weakness in the US Dollar suggests any breakdown in the US Dollar below $91.70 will likely prompt […]

Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out

After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021.  This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend. Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends […]

Volume Suggests US Stock Market Momentum Is Weakening

Weakening volume after an extended rally phase is fairly common.  It represents a complacency in the markets where traders/investors are unwilling to chase an extended rally phase at higher prices.  Often traders are waiting for some type of market correction or rotation to happen – which will allow them to […]