The Hazardous Detour in the Road to “Recovery” Few Foresee

As the level of Fed smack and crack needed to maintain the high increases, system fragility increases geometrically. You know the plot point in the horror film where the highway is blocked and a detour sign directs the car full of naive teens off onto a rutted track into the […]

Health, Wealth and What Kills Most of Us

If health is wealth, and it most certainly is the highest form of wealth, then we would be well-served to take charge of our health-wealth in terms of what behaviors we can sustainably modify. Longtime correspondent J.F. (MD) recently shared a fascinating graphic ranking the leading causes of death in […]

Do We Really Think a Band-Aid Will Heal a Tumor?

Borrowing a quarter of the nation’s entire economic output every year to prop up an ineffective, corrupt status quo is putting a Band-Aid over a tumor. If we misdiagnose the disease, our treatment won’t work.We’re all familiar with medical misdiagnoses, which lead to procedures and prescriptions that can’t possibly fix […]

Welcome to the Winter of Our Discontent

If you think this scale of stimulus is sustainable and consequence-free, you must be mainlining Delusionol. Wall Street’s euphoria knows no bounds, so how can this be the Winter of Our Discontent?We all know the source of Wall Street’s euphoria: $1.9 trillion in stimulus, followed by another $3 trillion for […]

We Don’t Need The Great Reset, We Need The Great Rebalancing

Perhaps we have collectively “lost our mind.” Perhaps what we need is not a new technology but a new way of living that uses existing technologies to echo “old ways” that worked rather well on much lower energy consumption. The Great Reset is much in the news–the proposed top-down plan […]

How We Stumbled to the Edge of the Cliff

Oops. Looks like the Fed’s magic (and our luck) have finally run out. Now that we’re teetering on the edge of the cliff, it might be a good idea to retrace how we stumbled down to this crumbling, precarious ledge. As I’ve discussed for the past 15 years, there are […]

Our Dead Money Economy

The U.S. stock and bond markets and its entire financial system now teeter on the edge of collapse if there is even a slight hint that 1) the Fed won’t give more free candy to Wall Street or 2) the Fed has lost control of the Dead Money Economy it […]

Stimulus Addiction Disorder: The Debt-Disposable Earnings Pyramid

One glance at this chart explains why the status quo is locked on “run to fail” and will implode in a spectacular collapse of the unsustainable debt super-nova.. For those who suspect the status quo is unsustainable but aren’t quite sure why, I’ve prepared a simple chart that explains the […]

The Cannibalization Is Complete: Only Inedible Zombies Remain

Poor powerless Fed, poor starving cannibals, poor zombies turning to dust. That’s the American economy once the curtains are ripped away. Setting aside the fictional flood of zombie movies for a moment, we find the real-world horror is the cannibalization of our economy, a cannibalization that is now complete. Every […]

The “Wait and See” Economy’s Moment of Truth

The “wait and see” economy is about to face its moment of truth, and one truth is the $1.8 trillion being passed out like candy is already spent. The defining phrase of the U.S. economy for the past year is “wait and see”: every enterprise impacted by the pandemic that […]

Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees the Deflationary Tsunami

Those looking up from their “free fish!” frolicking will see the tsunami too late to save themselves. It’s an amazing sight to see the water recede from the bay, and watch the crowd frolic in the shallows, scooping up the flopping fish. In this case, the crowd doing the “so […]

The Global Financial End-Game

The over-indebted, overcapacity global economy an only generate speculative asset bubbles that will implode, destroying the latest round of phantom collateral. For those seeking a summary, here is the global financial endgame in fourteen points: 1. In the initial “boost phase” of credit expansion, credit-based capital ( i.e. debt-money) pours […]

When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally Implode?

The mutually reinforcing crises aren’t in the future, they’re here now, and Jay Powell’s shuck-and-jive has lost its magical powers to cloak the rot with speculative bubbles. How many more times do we have to watch Jay Powell claim his speculative bubble isn’t a bubble, and that his massive expansion […]

About That +6.8% GDP Forecast: Remember That GDP = Waste

Any economy stupid enough to rely on the insane distortions of GDP “growth” as its primary measure will richly deserve a Darwin Award when it inevitably collapses in a putrid heap of squandered resources and capital. We’re told the gross domestic product (GDP) measures growth, but what it really measures […]

What “Normal” Are We Returning To? The Depression Nobody Dares Acknowledge

Perhaps we need an honest national dialog about declining expectations, rising inequality, social depression and the failure of the status quo. Even as the chirpy happy-talk of a return to normal floods the airwaves, what nobody dares acknowledge is that “normal” for a rising number of Americans is the social […]

They Can Always Print More Money But We Can’t Print More Time

Is that really what you want to spend your time doing, paying higher taxes? “No matter how much money I make, they will always print more. I can’t print anymore time.” The source of this quote is correspondent T.D., who shared the story of an acquaintance of his who was […]

Trapped!

Kill authentic price discovery, you also kill markets, and in killing markets, you kill allocation of capital and risk management, and in killing those, you kill the economy. Back when prosperity was authentic, the Federal Reserve had little need for public relations.But now that “prosperity” is an illusion that must […]

Oil and Debt: Why Our Financial System Is Unsustainable

How much energy, water and food will the “money” created out of thin air in the future buy? Finance is often cloaked in arcane terminology and math, but the one dynamic that governs the future is actually very simple. Here it is: all debt is borrowed against future supplies of […]

Anatomy of a Bubble and Crash

Needless to say, few are expecting bubble symmetry to manifest now, because, well, of course, “this time it’s different.” Indeed. It’s always different and yet always the same, too. Let’s indulge in some basic logic: 1. All speculative bubbles pop, regardless of source, time or place. (100% of all historical […]

The Babble-On 7: The Fed and Yellen

So babble on, Babble-On 7; it won’t change anything. The forces in motion are like tides, and you can’t talk the tide into reversing. Allow me to introduce the Babble-On 7: the six board members of the Federal Reserve and Treasury chief Janet Yellen. (The Fed board has seven slots […]