Is Inflation “Transitory”? Here’s Your Simple Test

Is inflation “transitory” in your household budget? Really? Where? The Federal Reserve has been bleating that inflation is “transitory”–but what about the real world that we live in, as opposed to the abstract funhouse of rigged statistics?Here’s a simple test to help you decide if inflation is “transitory” in the […]

Seven Things Nobody Talks About that Will Eventually Matter–A Lot

Nobody seems to notice the ‘diminishing returns’ on Fed manipulation, oops, I mean ‘intervention’. Perhaps it shouldn’t surprise us that everything that will eventually matter is ignored until it does matter–but by then it’s too late. Here’s a short list to start the discussion: 1. The Federal Reserve has transformed […]

The Fed Is Wrong: Inflation Is Sticky

The Fed’s god-like powers will be revealed for what they really are: artifice and illusion. The Fed will be proven catastrophically wrong about inflation for the simple reason that inflation isn’t transitory, it’s sticky: when prices rise due to real-world scarcities and higher costs, they stay high and then move […]

The Sources of Rip-Your-Face-Off Inflation Few Dare Discuss

We’re getting a real-world economics lesson in rip-your-face-off increases in prices, and the tuition is about to go up–way up. Inflation will be transitory, blah-blah-blah–I beg to differ, for these reasons.There are numerous structural sources of inflation, which I define as prices rise while the quality and quantity of goods […]

Post-Pandemic Metamorphosis: Never Going Back

People caught on that the returns on the frenzied hamster wheel of “normal” have been diminishing for decades, but everyone was too busy to notice. The superficial “return to normal” narrative focuses solely on first order effects:now that people can dispense with masks and social distancing, they are resuming their […]

A Couple Things About Inflation

The higher they push phantom “assets” based on exponential increases in leverage, the greater the air gap between essential tangibles and fantasy. Inflation is in the news, but there are a couple of things about inflation that don’t get much coverage. Let’s start with the trope that inflation is always […]

(Not) Living Large on Social Security

For about 1 in 4, Social Security provides at least 90 percent of their income. How many retired workers are getting less than $1,000 per month in Social Security benefits?The question came up and I was curious enough to find the answer, and download the data into an Excel spreadsheet […]

Why the Minimum Wage Should Be $18/Hour

What does it say about our “prosperity” if we can’t even afford to equal the purchasing power of the minimum wage paid 50 years ago? It says the 1% got the mine and the bottom 90% got the shaft. Given the rising prosperity we keep hearing about, shouldn’t we be […]

Increasingly Chaotic Volatility Ahead–The New Normal Few Think Possible

That the era of stability has ended and a new era of increasingly chaotic volatility has begun is not on anyone’s radar as a possibility. The standard debate about the future of the economy is: which will we get, high inflation or a deflationary collapse of defaults and asset bubbles […]

Do We Really Want to Return to “Normal” If “Normal” Is Destroying the Planet?

Change the incentives, and the outcomes change. Ecologist Howard Odum provided a profound insight into human expansion, stagnation and collapse. He argued that humans are wired to maximize power output (i.e., consumption) rather than maximize efficiency. In other words, humans are wired to strip the tree of every ripe fruit […]

Systemic Risks Abound

If you wanted to design a system guaranteed to collapse in a putrid heap, you’d make moral hazard ubiquitous and you’d make the system 100% dependent on a hubris-soaked faux savior. For the past 22 years, every time the stock market whimpered, wheezed or whined, the Federal Reserve rushed to […]

Fed to Treasury Dealers and Congress: We Can’t Count On You, We’re Taking Charge

The Fed sees itself as trapped by the incompetence and greed of the other players and by its own policy extremes that were little more than expedient “saves” of a system that is unraveling due to its fragility and brittleness. . There are two standard-issue narratives about the Federal Reserve’s […]

FOMO Is Loco

We can also posit a general rule that those who inherit wealth and succumb to FOMO are eventually less wealthy while those who are wealthy and take a pass on FOMO / hoarding at the top of the manic frenzy increase their wealth. Judging by the panic buying of everything […]

U.S. Stimulus Has Created a Boom–in China

Maybe maximizing corporate profits isn’t all that matters. Maybe national security and resilience matter, too, and if they do, then reshoring critical supply chains should be a higher priority than Corporate America’s (mostly tax-free) profits. As America’s trade deficit explodes higher and the costs of offshoring supply chains mount, the […]

Sickcare is the Knife in the Heart of Employment–and the Economy

We need to change the incentives of the entire system, not just healthcare, but if we don’t start with healthcare, that financial cancer will drag us into national insolvency all by itself. American Healthcare is a growth industry in the same way cancer is a growth industry: both keep growing […]

Why Wage Inflation Will Accelerate

The Fed has created trillions out of thin air to boost the speculative wealth of Wall Street, but it can’t print experienced workers willing to work for low wages. The Federal Reserve is reassuring us daily that inflation is temporary, but allow me to assure you that wage inflation is […]

The ‘Take This Job and Shove It’ Recession

So hey there Corporate America, the Fed and your neofeudal cronies: take this job and shove it. This time it really is different, but not in the way the Wall Street shucksters are claiming. Conventional economists, politicos and pundits are completely clueless about the unraveling that’s gathering momentum beneath the […]

Here’s How ‘Everything Bubbles’ Pop

But weirdly, and irrationally, bubbles pop anyway. At long last, the moment you’ve been hoping for has arrived: you’re pitching your screenplay to a producer. Your agent is cautious but you’re confident nobody else has concocted a story as outlandish as yours. Your agent gives you the nod and you’re […]

Hey Fed, Explain Again How Making Billionaires Richer Creates Jobs

Despite their hollow bleatings about ‘doing all we can to achieve full employment’, the Fed’s policies has been Kryptonite to employment, labor and the bottom 90%–and most especially to the bottom 50%, the working poor that one might imagine most deserve a leg up. As wealth and income inequality soar […]

Covid Has Triggered The Next Great Financial Crisis

What’s left are the ‘fatal synergies’ of soaring debt and leverage, diminishing returns on stimulus, the substitution of credit for savings and the coming deflationary tsunami that pops all the speculative bubbles. Imagine a once modest but sturdy home built near a cliff to maximize the vistas. Over the decades, […]