Could the Covid-19 Pandemic Collapse the U.S. Healthcare System?

Disregard these second-order effects at your own peril. A great many systems that are assumed to be robust are actually fragile. Exhibit #1 is the global financial system, of course, but Exhibit #2 may well be the healthcare system globally and in the U.S. Observers have noted that the number of […]

The Economic Cataclysm Ahead

The economic storm hasn’t passed; the false calm is only the eye of the financial hurricane. To understand the economic cataclysm ahead, do the math. Those expecting the Covid-19 pandemic to leave the U.S. economy untouched are implicitly making these preposterously unlikely claims: 1. China will resume full pre-pandemic production and shipping […]

How Many Cases of Covid-19 Will It Take For You to Decide Not to Frequent Public Places?

As empty streets and shelves attest, people taking charge of risk has dire economic consequences. How many cases of Covid-19 in your community will it take for you to decide not to frequent public places such as cafes, restaurants, theaters, concerts, etc? How many cases in your community will it take for you […]

No, The Fed Will Not “Save the Market”–Here’s Why

The greater the excesses, speculative euphoria and moral hazard, the greater the reversal. A very convenient conviction is rising in the panicked financial netherworld that the Federal Reserve and its fellow dark lords will “save the market” from COVID-19 collapse. They won’t. I already explained why in The Fed Has Created a […]

When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable?

Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic. If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they’d likely include these characteristics: 1. Highly contagious, with an […]

When Bubbles Pop, Only the First Sellers Escape Being Bagholders

Hapless bagholders have two options: buy the dip and be destroyed, or hang on hoping for a reversal and be destroyed. One often overlooked characteristic of the current stock market bubble is the extremely small exit for sellers trying to avoid becoming hapless bagholders. Bubbles always present small exits because once […]

Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech

If you think global demand will rebound as global debt and confidence implode, you better not be making consequential decisions based on Euphorestra-addled magical thinking. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy was slowing for two reasons: 1) everybody who can afford it already has it and 2) overcapacity. One […]

Omens, Portents, Karma and the Mandate of Heaven

The question of legitimacy isn’t limited to China. what makes humans unique among social mammals? Some say humor, I would nominate superstition: regardless of how hard we promote our rationality and logic, humanity continues to sense portents and omens in events and feel the intangible tug of karma: the consequences of past […]

The World Is Awash in Oil, False Assurances, Magical Thinking and Complacency as Global Demand Careens Toward a Cliff

This collapse of price will manifest in all sorts of markets that are based on debt-funded purchases of desires rather than a warily prudent priority on needs. Since markets are supposed to discover the price of excesses and scarcities, it’s a mystery why everything that is in oversupply is still grossly overpriced as […]

COVID-19 Pandemic: The Complacent Are Clueless

The eventual price of substituting magical thinking and survivorship bias for actual evidence will be far higher than the complacent realize. Here’s a sampling of complacent assertions being made about the COVID-19 virus as if they were certitudes: It’s no worse than a bad cold. It’s less deadly than a […]

The Fed Has Created a Monster Bubble It Can No Longer Control

The Fed must now accept responsibility for what happens in the end-game of the Moral-Hazard Monster Bubble it created. Contrary to popular opinion, the Federal Reserve didn’t set out to create a Monster Bubble that has escaped its control. Also contrary to popular opinion, the Fed will be unable to “never […]

The Violent Collision of Market Fantasy and Viral Reality

When the stampede tumbles off the cliff, buyers vanish and markets go bidless. The shock wave unleashed in China on January 23 is about to hit the U.S. economy and shatter everything that is fragile and fantasy, starting with the U.S. stock market. The shock wave is still reverberating through the […]

Our “Come to Mao” Reckoning and the Next Cultural Revolution

Only fools are blind to the potential for this uprising to extend to Apple and the rest of Corporate America’s greedy exploiters who’ve been delighted to profit from the protection of the CCP. Let’s start our “Come to Mao” reckoning with the obvious: To the U.S. stock market: The coronavirus […]

China’s Fatal Dilemma

Ending the limited quarantine and falsely proclaiming China safe for visitors and business travelers will only re-introduce the virus to workplaces and infect foreigners. China faces an inescapably fatal dilemma: to save its economy from collapse, China’s leadership must end the quarantines soon and declare China “safe for travel and open […]

Controlling the Narrative Is Not the Same as Controlling the Virus

Are these claims even remotely plausible for a highly contagious virus that spreads easily between humans while carriers show no symptoms? It’s clear that the narrative about the coronavirus is being carefully managed globally to minimize the impact on global sentiment and markets. Authorities are well aware of the global economy’s […]

The Pandemic Isn’t Ending, It’s Just the Beginning of Global Disorder and Depression

When you’ve been lied to, you’ve been betrayed. Betrayal has consequences. Unsurprisingly, denying the pandemic is unstoppable and consequential is the order of the day: authorities everywhere are terrified these realities might leak through all their oh-so-obviously desperate firewalls and filters. Why are they terrified? Because they know the entire global […]

Pandemic, Lies and Videos

Will we wonder, what were we thinking? and marvel anew at the madness of crowds? When we look back on this moment from the vantage of history, what will we think? Will we think how obvious it was that the coronavirus deaths in China were in the tens of thousands rather than the […]

When China’s Supply Chains Break, so Will the Delusion the U.S. Economy Is Invulnerable

Was it ever plausible that China’s economy could grind to a halt and there wouldn’t be any consequences for the U.S. economy? No. Many commentators talk about supply chains in China, but how many have actually visited factories in China, other than carefully choreographed PR visits to suitably high-tech facilities? I’ve […]

Projecting “Wave 2” and “Wave 3” of the Coronavirus Pandemic

It’s too early to declare victory and too early to assume the virus can be completely eradicated in a few weeks on the SARS model. Many people are already anticipating the end of the coronavirus pandemic and a quick return to “normal life” and renewed global growth. But if we examine […]

Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In

If we accept what is known about the virus, then logic, science and probabilities all suggest we brace for impact. Here’s a summary of what is known or credibly estimated about the 2019-nCoV virus as of January 31, 2019: 1. A statistical study from highly credentialed Chinese academics estimates the […]