Credit chaos

March 16, 2023 by

Alasdair Macleod Following the day-to-day twists and turns of a banking crisis can make us lose sight of the bigger picture. It is tempting to think that the banking authorities are in control, and they will secure the integrity of their commercial banking networks. Unfolding events may or may not […]

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Why credit needs a golden anchor

March 9, 2023 by

This article examines the relationship between credit and its anchor in value. Today, that anchor is fiat currency, which is both parochial and unstable. Historically, and in law it has always been gold. It is a common error to think of credit in a narrow sense, without realising that officially […]

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CBDCs — The good, the bad, the ugly

February 23, 2023 by

Feb 23, 2023 · Alasdair Macleod There has been much comment over the likelihood that central bank digital currencies will be introduced. I conclude they are unnecessary — a red herring. But it does allow us to discuss their possible relevance to a new Asian super-currency. Earlier this month, the […]

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Money and recession

February 9, 2023 by

How reliable is the link between money supply growth and the economic outlook? Monetarists are warning now that money supply has stopped growing and even turned negative, so we are heading for a recession. This article examines the position for US dollar M2 money supply and the prospects for the […]

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A tale of two worlds

February 2, 2023 by

In the war between the western alliance and the Asian axis, the media focus is on the Ukrainian battlefield. The real war is in currencies, with Russia capable of destroying the dollar. So far, Putin’s actions have been relatively passive. But already, both Russia and China have accumulated enough gold […]

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Russia’s intentions are clarifying

January 26, 2023 by

Jan 26, 2023·Alasdair Macleod We have confirmation from the highest sources that Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are considering using gold for pan-Asian trade settlements, fully replacing dollars and euros. In an article written for Vedomosti, a Moscow-based Russian newspaper published on 27 December, Sergey Glazyev, a prominent […]

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Say’s law and macroeconomic ignorance

January 19, 2023 by

Jan 19, 2023 · Alasdair Macleod Probably the greatest error in modern economics was the abandonment of Say’s law, otherwise known as the law of the markets. In a nutshell, it demonstrated that through the division of labour, production is firmly linked to consumption, and the former is tied to […]

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Inflation, recession, and declining US hegemony

December 22, 2022 by

In the distant future, we might look back on 2022 and 2023 as pivotal years. So far, we have seen the conflict between America and the two Asian hegemons emerge into the open, leading to a self-inflicted energy crisis on the western alliance. The forty-year trend of declining interest rates […]

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Rising rates lead to financial accidents

December 15, 2022 by

A recent Bank for International Settlements paper warning of unappreciated risks in foreign exchange markets echoes my earlier warning in an article for Goldmoney published over a month ago describing derivative risks in FX markets.[i] In this article I also show evidence that banks in both the US and Eurozone […]

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Winter in Central Europe and for the dollar

December 1, 2022 by

By Alasdair Macleod  (originally published at https://www.goldmoney.com/research/winter-in-central-europe-and-for-the-dollar) In this article I examine the current state of the fight for hegemonic control between America on the one side, and Russia and China on the other. It is being fought on two fronts. Ukraine, the one in plain sight, is about to […]

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Pause for Thanksgiving

November 26, 2022 by

Nov 25, 2022·Alasdair Macleod The Thanksgiving holiday in America ensured that trade in precious metals was subdued this week. Nevertheless, gold and silver prices held their ground. In European morning trade today, gold was at $1753, up $3 from last Friday’s close. And silver was at $21.35, up 40 cents. […]

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Legal definitions of money and credit

November 10, 2022 by

At these times of growing confusion over the future of currencies’ purchasing power, it is time to remove all doubt in the definitions of the differences between money, currency, and credit. This article traces the history and legal background to these relationships. Despite the failure of the Bretton Woods agreement […]

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The Great Unwind II

November 3, 2022 by

With price inflation rising out of control and interest rates rising strongly, the trading environment for commercial banks has fundamentally changed. With bad debts looming and bond prices in entrenched downtrends, procrastination is now the enemy of bankers. We are at the beginning of The Great Unwind, and this article […]

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Watching the paint dry

November 2, 2022 by

Oct 28, 2022·Alasdair Macleod Gold and silver consolidated the small gains of the previous week in subdued paper trading. In European this morning, gold was at $1649, down $9 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $19.22 off 16 cents. Broader financial markets also reflected consolidation. The dollar’s TWI weakened, […]

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Free markets’ last stand

October 20, 2022 by

The British government’s desperate dash towards free markets has failed, badly bungled. The establishment in Whitehall and Westminster is back and realigned with the international government consensus. The socialist wealth redistributors, the interventionists, and the anti-Brexit Remainers now formulate government policy. In Britain, free markets are dead.  Citizens of other […]

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Banking crisis — the Great Unwind

October 13, 2022 by

There is a growing feeling in markets that a financial crisis of some sort is now on the cards. Credit Suisse’s very public struggles to refinance itself is proving to be a wake-up call for markets, alerting investors to the parlous state of global banking. This article identifies the principal […]

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Imploding credit — the consequences

October 6, 2022 by

There is a growing realisation that the world faces a combination of persistent inflation of prices and a recession at the same time. The factors driving both are visibly intensifying. Those of us versed in the cycle of bank credit are aware that it is the contraction of bank balance […]

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Kwarteng – a job half done

September 29, 2022 by

Following the new Kwarteng/Truss economic policies revealed in last week’s mini budget, the widespread condemnation is a reflex Keynesian response from a world which has become hostage to erroneous economic and monetary groupthink in its major institutions. Kwarteng has jogged the global statist establishment out of its complacent drift into […]

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Inflation is turning hyper

September 15, 2022 by

Sep 15, 2022·Alasdair Macleod Money supply took off during covid lockdowns. It is now about to take off again to pay everyone’s energy bills. But that is not all. Demands for currency and credit to be conjured out of thin air to pay for everything will be coming thick and […]

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An Asian Bretton Woods?

September 8, 2022 by

The financial war between Russia with China’s tacit backing on one side, and America and her NATO allies on the other has escalated rapidly. It appears that President Putin was thinking several steps ahead when he launched Russia’s attack on Ukraine. We have seen sanctions fail. We have seen Russia […]

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