Why interest rate management fails

Goldmoney Staff    April 22, 2021                    By Alasdair Macleod This article explains why attempting to achieve economic outcomes by managing interest rates fails. The basis of monetary interventionist theories ignores the discoveries of earlier free-market thinkers, particularly Say, Turgot and Böhm-Bawerk. It also ignores Gibson’s paradox, which demolishes the theory […]

Say’s law and the destruction of savings

Goldmoney Staff  .  April 1, 2021  By Alasdair Macleod This article explains the fundamental mistake behind Keynes’s General Theory, the vade mecum for all macro and mathematical economists today. It is no exaggeration to say that his casual rejection of Jean-Baptiste Say’s economic theories in his off-hand interpretation of them, […]

Biden’s last throw of geopolitical dice

Goldmoney Staff . March 25, 2021 In a continuing cold war, America is already on the back foot. We have yet to see how long it will be before the Biden administration realises its few victories will be unaffordably Pyrrhic, and by merely not responding to American provocation the Chinese/Russian […]

Inflation watch: Beware the ides of March

Goldmoney Staff . By Alasdair Macleod President Biden has now had his $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed into law, and it will not be the last in the current fiscal year. Covid is not over and is sure to resurge with new variants next winter. But even assuming that is […]

Monetary inflation: the next step

Goldmoney Staff February 25, 2021 Earlier this month the US Treasury released its plan to flood the financial system with cash by reducing its balance on its general account at the Fed by $1.229 trillion by not renewing an equivalent amount of T-Bills. Separately, the Fed will continue with its […]

Keynesians going all in

Goldmoney – January 21, 2021 Mainstream economists are celebrating Joe Biden’s election as US President. For Keynesians, the outlook is for a reaffirmation of economic management by the state, and of reflationary monetary policies to restore economic growth, following the damage caused by covid lockdowns. This article points out the […]

The destructive force and failure of QE

This article concludes that quantitative easing as a means of stimulating economies and financing government deficits will fail. The underlying assumption is that the transmission of additional money to non-banks in order to inflate financial assets, and to banks to cover government finances, will become too great in 2021 for […]

Economic and monetary outlook for 2021

Goldmoney                      December 30,2020          By Alasdair Macleod The most important event in the new year is likely to be the Fed losing control of its iron grip on markets. The dollar’s declining trend is already well established against other currencies and commodities, leading to this outcome. Events in 2021 will be […]

Alasdair Macleod’s Inflation Roadmap

It is beginning to be obvious that global economic woes extend beyond covid lockdowns and that monetary inflation for the dollar, as the common foundation for other fiat currencies whose issuers face similar problems, will continue to accelerate. Fiat currencies have only survived this long due to increased financialisation of […]

The emerging evidence of hyperinflation

Goldmoney Insights by Alasdair Macleod Note: all references to inflation are of the quantity of money and not to the effect on prices unless otherwise indicated. In last week’s article I showed why empirical evidence of fiat money collapses are relevant to monetary conditions today. In this article I explain […]

China is killing the dollar

Goldmoney Insights In the wake of the Fed’s promise of 23 March to print money without limit in order to rescue the covid-stricken US economy, China changed its policy of importing industrial materials to a more aggressive stance. In examining the rationale behind this move, this article concludes that while […]

A potential crisis in Comex gold

Goldmoney Insights                                            We are all used to the bullion banks covering their shorts on Comex by waiting until the speculators are over-bullish and vulnerable to mark-downs that trigger their stops. […]

Prices are going to rise — and fast!

Goldmoney Insights             July 02, 2020 With stockmarkets barely ruffled, few are thinking beyond the very short-term and they are mostly guessing anyway. Other than possibly the very short-term as we emerge from lockdowns, the economic situation is actually dire, and any hope of a V-shaped recovery is wishful thinking or […]

Unintended consequences of monetary inflation

Goldmoney Insights “In short, the Fed is committed to rescue businesses from the greatest economic catastrophe since the great depression and probably even greater than that, to fund the US Government’s rocketing budget deficits, fund the maintenance of domestic consumption directly or indirectly through the US Treasury, while pumping up […]

A primer for gold newbies

Goldmoney Insights – By Alasdair Macleod The purpose of this article is purely educational. Increasingly, the wider public is turning to gold in a spontaneous reaction to financial and economic problems that have become suddenly apparent, hastened by the spread of the coronavirus. For everyone now thinking of buying gold […]

Will COVID-19 lead to a gold standard?

Goldmoney Insights Even before the coronavirus sprang upon an unprepared China the credit cycle was tipping the world into recession. The coronavirus makes an existing situation immeasurably worse, shutting down China and disrupting global supply chains to the point where large swathes of global production simply cease. The crisis is […]

Coronavirus and credit – a perfect storm

Goldmoney Insights – Posted on February 13, 2020 This article posits that the spread of the coronavirus coincides with the downturn in the global credit cycle, with potentially catastrophic results. At the time of writing, analysts are still trying to get to grips with the virus’s economic impact and they […]

Irrational fears of deflation

The benefits of a deflation of prices brought about by a combination of sound money and markets free from government intervention have been demonstrated to be the best economic environment, the denial of which in favour of inflationary financing has led to repeated monetary and systemic failures. This article explains […]

Gold’s outlook for 2020

Goldmoney Insights January 02, 2020 This article is an overview of the economic conditions that will drive the gold price in 2020 and beyond. The turn of the credit cycle, the effect on government deficits and how they are to be financed are addressed. In the absence of foreign demand […]

The Reasoning Behind Gold’s Breakout

Goldmoney Insights Gold’s dramatic move above $1400 has caught the investment establishment by surprise. Physical gold ETFs, as a proxy for direct portfolio investment, amount to only 0.05% of the estimated $250 trillion of global investment values. As well as being badly wrongfooted, investment managers have little understanding of the […]