Argentina Is Just A Few Years Away From Ending Natural Gas Imports Entirely
Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors brings us his latest insights on the natural gas market, which he gleaned from a recent trip to Argentina.
Last week I was in beautiful Argentina with a diverse team of investors and mining executives, including my good friend Frank Giustra; Ian Telfer, founder of Silver Wheaton and current Chairman of the Board of Goldcorp, which has sizeable investments in Argentina; and Serafino Iacono, Chairman of the Board of Pacific Exploration and Production (formerly Pacific Rubiales), which is active throughout South America. Together we toured various natural gas and crude oil mining projects in Tierra del Fuego, Mendoza and Santa Cruz, where we had the opportunity to speak with Governor Alicia Kirchner, elder sister to former Argentinian president Néstor Kirchner.
Even with Macri at the helm, corruption remains a problem in Argentina. The South American country currently ranks 95th in Transparency International’s 2016 Corruption Perceptions Index.One of the highlights of the trip was meeting with current president Mauricio Macri in Buenos Aires. Macri, as you might know, was elected in late 2015 on his credentials as a businessman and former mayor of Buenos Aires. His administration ends more than a decade of socialist rule by Kirchner and his wife Cristina Fernández, who was indicted this past December on corruption charges.
But economic conditions are improving. After contracting 1 percent in 2016, country GDP is expected to grow as much as 2.8 percent this year. Macri’s mission to make Argentina great again has already led him to abolish currency controls, return to world credit markets, attract foreign investors and set in motion a plan to reduce the fiscal deficit. After that, he hopes to get around to tax reform. In the meantime, there’s the energy sector.
A Plan to End Natural Gas Imports by 2022
Since 2008, Argentina has been a net importer of hydrocarbons, mainly natural gas, which represents more than half of the country’s energy matrix. Prices are low right now, so the economic impact is not detrimental. Should prices begin to rise substantially, however, it could destroy the economy. As such, my friends and colleagues were invited to help develop the fields and prevent further overreliance on imports. The government, in fact, wants to end them altogether by 2022.
Production declined mainly because of underinvestment during the two Kirchner administrations. Stringent regulations forced companies to sell product in the domestic market at a discount to international prices. Capital dried up to reinvest in the fields, and the natural decline of well production drove the overall output down. Making matters worse, companies lacked access to capital markets due to the Argentina sovereign debt default in 2001.
YPF, the government’s oil company, has already done exceptional exploration work, so there are numerous areas ready to be developed. This is the opportunity for us.As I said, the country is fabulously rich in hydrocarbons such as natural gas and petroleum. It’s estimated to have the world’s third-largest natural gas reserves and, according to the independent research Wilson Center, it “could possibly be the country with the most promising shale prospects outside of the United States.” Its most promising formation is Vaca Muerta (“Dead Cow”), located in the Neuquén basin, which has been compared to Texas’ prolific Eagle Ford play in terms of depth and thickness.
Having seen the projects firsthand and spoken to policymakers, I’m confident Macri can help open up Argentina’s energy sector and streamline production. Upon taking office, one of the president’s first acts was to slash the previous administration’s energy subsidies, which cost the government more than $51 billion over the past 13 years. Electricity bills in Buenos Aires rose a reported 500 percent as a result, but the move allowed the government to save a much-needed $4 billion in 2016 alone.
The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG) was trading at $6.53 per share on Monday afternoon, down $0.23 (-3.40%). Year-to-date, UNG has declined -30.09%, versus a 6.15% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
UNG currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of D (Sell), and is ranked #89 of 121 ETFs in the Commodity ETFs category.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns.
The Corruption Perception Index was created in 1995 by Transparency International. It ranks almost 200 countries on a scale of zero to 10, with zero indicating high levels of corruption and 10 indicating low levels. Developed countries typically rank higher than developing nations due to stronger regulations.
Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 12/31/2016: Silver Wheaton Corp.
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About the Author: Frank Holmes
Frank Holmes is the CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes purchased a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors in 1989 and became the firm’s chief investment officer in 1999. In 2006, Mr. Holmes was selected mining fund manager of the year by the Mining Journal, and in 2011 he was named a U.S. Metals and Mining “TopGun” by Brendan Wood International. He is also the co-author of The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing. More than 30,000 subscribers follow his weekly commentary in the award-winning Investor Alert newsletter which is read in over 180 countries.
Under his guidance, the company’s mutual funds have received recognition from Lipper and Morningstar, two trusted independent financial authorities. In 2015, Mr. Holmes led the company into the exchange traded fund (ETF) business with the launch of the U.S. Global Jets ETF, which invests in the global airline sector.
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