Short-Term And Long-Term Bullish Bias Continues For Dow Jones Industrial Average

Market technician Dave Chojnacki of Street One Financial kicks off the new trading week with an update on the important technical levels for the major U.S. averages, which appear to have lost a bit of momentum despite still hovering around all-time highs.

A week with a slew of economic reports, mostly good, did little to move equities last week. A big rally after Wednesday’s Fed rate hike could not be emulated in succeeding sessions.

On Friday, which was an options expiration day, volume spiked, but prices were barely changed. Equities traded in a narrow range and an end of day sell-off left the major indices in the red at the final bell. The losses were minor, but left the averages near their lows of the day. At the close, the DJIA fell 19.9 points, the SPX slipped 3.1 points, and the NDX was little changed, down 3.3 points.

Breadth was positive on Friday, 1.5 to 1, on above average volume. ROC(10’s) declined in the session, with the NDX the only index in positive territory. RSI’s continue between the low 60’s and low 70’s. The ARMS Index ended at 1.77, a fairly bearish level. For the week, the DJIA added 12 points, the SPX was up 6 points, and the NDX gaining 0.4%. The VIX slipped 0.62% on Friday to 11.28.

Long term, the upside bias continues, with the NDX making new closing and intra-day highs of 5416 and 5426, respectively. While the DJIA and SPX did not make new highs last week, they are still within 1% of their highs. All three major indices continue comfortably above their 20Week Moving Averages: DJIA-19880, NDX-5048, SPX-2272.

Short term, the bias remains to the upside as well, with the SPX and NDX above their 50% retracement levels of 2240 and 5025, respectively. Near term, there has been some consolidation, but averages continue to find support just at or near their 20D-SMA’s, which are DJIA-20878, SPX-2371, NDX-5367. We continue to watch MACD’s, as they are below signal.

Europe is lower in early trade, and U.S. Futures are pointing a bit lower as well. It will be a light week for economic reports, but we will get some Housing numbers later in the week.

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) was unchanged in premarket trading Monday. Year-to-date, DIA has gained 5.75%, versus a 6.04% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

DIA currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #5 of 74 ETFs in the Large Cap Value ETFs category.


Disclaimer: The content of this article is excerpted from a daily newsletter from Street One Financial. While ETF Daily News may edit the contents and add a relevant title to the piece, the author, David Chojnacki, does not endorse or recommend any issuer or security mentioned herein.

About the Author: Dave Chojnacki

Dave Chojnacki is the Chief Market Technician at Street One Financial. He provides technical support for the Street One team and also develops individual analysis for Clients as requested.

Dave is a major contributor to the ‘ETF Daily’, a morning newsletter providing clients a daily look at market technicals of the major indices and selected ETF’s. Market trends, support and resistance levels are provided in the daily letter. The Technical portion of the daily can also be found on Seeking Alpha. Mr. Chojnacki has been quoted in a number of industry publications including the Reuters, ETF Trends, Minyanville, Yahoo Financial and Investors.Com.

In addition, Dave assists with desk trading when necessary. He possesses a Series 7 and 63.

Prior to joining Street One, Dave designed and developed I/T Systems for the Insurance and Financial Industries.

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